আরও দেখুন
14.09.2026 06:44 PM
The EUR/USD pair fell sharply, losing around 100 points over the past three days. Interestingly, the decline in the European currency began last Thursday, when the ECB made a decidedly hawkish decision that should have allowed the bulls to continue their advance. However, at a crucial moment, the bulls once again retreated and effectively surrendered without a fight.
Let me remind you that the main reason for the bears' current strength is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with traders expecting a tightening of monetary policy. The market continues to debate whether Kevin Warsh will be able to distance himself from the White House and from Donald Trump, who appointed him to head the FOMC, and independently support a decision to tighten monetary policy. There is also debate over whether a rate hike makes sense in September, given that US inflation has remained unchanged for three consecutive months.
However, it appears that the market has reached an extreme level of hawkish expectations. In any case, neither the ECB nor the US inflation report is responsible for the current decline in EUR/USD. Bullish imbalance 21 has been invalidated, and the pair may now continue its decline toward imbalance 19.
Overall, in my view, the information background continues to favor the bulls. First, any chart clearly shows that the European currency began its rise from relatively low levels (over the past year) compared with the average price over the same period. This means that it still has room for growth. Second, the market continues to doubt that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, regardless of what statements Warsh makes. Third, economic data from the United States have recently been mostly disappointing. Fourth, geopolitics no longer supports the bears or the dollar. Fifth, the ECB has already implemented two monetary policy tightenings in 2026. Sixth, the US Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, which reduces demand for the dollar. Seventh, a trade war between the United States and Canada has officially begun. Eighth, the US labor market in 2026 is doing only marginally better than it did in 2025. Thus, I currently see not a single reason for a bearish advance. It is unfortunate that the bulls also seem unable to find reasons to attack.
The current chart structure points to a break in the bullish momentum. Bullish imbalance 21, together with imbalance 20, provided an excellent opportunity for the bulls to continue their advance. However, it appears that the market has already decided that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday evening, while nobody is interested in what decisions the ECB is making in parallel. Therefore, traders should now expect bearish patterns to form, which will allow them to open short positions. The bulls' last hope lies in imbalance 19, which could stop the bears' advance. However, this pattern is located in the 1.1406–1.1434 level.
There was no economic news background on Monday, which did not prevent the bears from launching a devastating attack. Overall, market movements are currently driven almost entirely by traders' expectations regarding Fed policy and little else. Consequently, all secondary reports and events currently have virtually no influence on market sentiment.
The bulls still have an enormous number of reasons to attack in 2026. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I do not see any serious supporting factors for the US currency despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitics, which supported demand for the US currency during much of the first half of 2026, is no longer doing so.
On September 15, the economic events calendar contains three entries, none of which are of any particular interest. The influence of the economic background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be weak or nonexistent.
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has taken a pause for an entire year. The information background shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or completed. In the long term, I would say that the pair is trading within a range. However, the range does not negate the more global bullish trend. Thus, the bulls may resume their advance in 2026, but at the moment the bears have once again seized the initiative. A bearish imbalance may form as early as tomorrow, which could allow traders to open short positions in the future. The current target for the decline of the European currency is the 1.1406–1.1434 level. From this zone, I will expect a rebound and the initiative to shift back into the hands of the bulls.
