Macquarie has revised its price forecasts for gold and silver in 2026, citing extreme market volatility and the impact of recent political and macroeconomic events.

According to bank strategist Peter Taylor, the scenarios that Macquarie had previously warned about have materialized more quickly and in a harsher form than expected. Notably, gold has reached $5,000 per ounce amid concerns regarding the leadership of the US Federal Reserve, while silver has experienced a sharp pullback, confirming its historical tendency toward high volatility.

The bank has raised its forecast for the average gold price in the first quarter of 2026 to $4,590 per ounce from the previously expected $4,300. The estimate for the second quarter has been increased to $4,300 from $4,200. The annual average forecast for 2026 has been revised to $4,323 per ounce, up from the previous $4,225.

The silver forecast has also been significantly adjusted. The target price for the first quarter of 2026 is now set at $75 per ounce, compared to $55 previously, while the average price for the entire year is expected to reach $62 instead of $57.

According to Taylor, January has been exceptionally eventful from a news perspective. Among the key factors he highlighted were threats of criminal prosecution against the Fed chair, the arrest and extradition of Nicolas Maduro, increased attention to Greenland with possible tariff measures against certain NATO countries, and a ramping up of military presence around Iran.

He noted that commodity markets have mostly demonstrated strong dynamics, even though price movements often did not align with fundamental indicators. As the strategist pointed out, this has resulted in one of the strongest monthly performances for the commodity sector in recent times.

Macquarie stated that it will refrain from revising its long-term forecasts for gold and silver for the time being. The bank cited the ongoing disparity between fundamental factors and the level of volatility in the precious metals market.