ব্যঙ্গাত্মক বর্ণনা এবং ফরেক্সের প্রবেশদ্বার বিন্যাস
ECB: US tariffs weigh on euro area prices and industry over medium term
Import tariffs imposed by other countries generally reduce inflation in the euro area and weaken economic growth, according to a new analysis by the European Central Bank. In a blog post published on Tuesday, ECB economists found that when the United States imposes tariffs on European goods, the euro area experiences lower prices and weakened industrial activity over the medium term.
The researchers identified "tariff-related trade surprise" (TTS) by analyzing anomalous trade patterns associated with historical changes in US tariffs. Immediately after a TTS, prices in the euro area rise slightly, reflecting the pass‑through of higher production costs along supply chains. However, about one and a half years after a TTS that reduces euro area exports to the United States by 1%, consumer prices fall by roughly 0.1%. Industrial production follows a similar trajectory, declining over the period before stabilizing.
The impact varies significantly across sectors. Downstream sectors that produce final goods—machinery, automotive, and pharmaceuticals—reach peak effect one to two years after a TTS. When bilateral exports fall by 1%, output in these sectors declines on average by 0.3%, and producer prices fall by 0.1% after one year. Upstream sectors that produce intermediate inputs, such as chemicals, follow a different timing profile because they sit earlier in the value chain and are more directly exposed to tariff changes.
প্রকাশিত 13 February 2026
© InstaFintech Group
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© InstaFintech Group
