A new ECB analysis from April 2026 reports that foreign exporters have passed 95% of the cost of the new US tariffs onto US businesses and households. A 10 percentage‑point increase in tariffs leads to an immediate rise in output prices of 9.5%, while firms’ ability to absorb those costs through margins is nearly exhausted. At present, consumers directly bear one‑third of all tariff costs, but analysts forecast that this share could rise to 50% or more over the long term. The corporate sector — manufacturers and retailers — will have to shoulder about 40% of the increased costs.

The sharp increase in tariff rates from 3% to 18% triggered an import collapse: every 10 percentage‑point rise in tariffs reduces goods imports by 37%. The auto industry has been hit particularly hard, as the US has actively substituted supplies from China and the EU with inputs from regional partners — Mexico and Canada. While Japan and the EU lose export volumes and revenue, the US economy faces a negative trend in the unit value of imported goods, confirming a significant drop in consumer demand amid higher prices.

According to the WTO, the effective tariff rate amounted to 9.8% versus a nominal rate of 18.2%. This gap reflects importers’ adaptation — quickly finding alternative suppliers or goods with lower tax burdens. Nevertheless, attempts to protect the domestic market have forced American companies to operate under extreme financial strain. Besides, ordinary consumers have become the main payers in the trade confrontation, effectively bearing almost the entire cost of the imposed restrictions.