empty
08.04.2024 02:27 PM
US dollar enjoys gains

The net long dollar position increased by another $2.4 billion over the reporting week, totaling $16.1 billion, showing confidently bullish positioning. The dollar gained mainly against the euro and the yen, with minor repositioning against other currencies.

The increase in the long dollar position is logical and easily explained: the more the market doubts that the Fed will begin to cut rates, the longer the dollar will remain in a high-rate environment, the higher its yield relative to other currencies, and therefore, the higher the demand for the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

The US labor market report also came with surprises. Data showed that the market added 303,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, significantly more than both the 200,000 expected by economists and the historical average of 190,000. The report also showed that the average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating accelerated wage growth, which causes inflation-related concern among Fed policymakers. Fed representatives Logan and Bowman described the current situation almost identically, saying that inflation progress has stalled. Yes, the inflation situation is rather complicated, but such reports favorably affect the dollar, enhancing its bullish prospects.

During Easter celebrations, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that strong data make it possible to postpone the rate cut cycle to gain more confidence in inflation cooling. The yield on TIPS bonds, an excellent indicator of inflation expectations, is rising. In December, it dropped to 2.06%, while on Friday, the indicator rose to a more than five-month high of 2.45%.

This image is no longer relevant

In addition to jobs data, other reports were quite optimistic. The US Manufacturing ISM was significantly above expectations in March, indicating the start of production expansion for the first time since 2022. US consumption expanded by 0.4% in February, and the Services ISM in March slightly decreased from February but remained in growth territory.

Positive data acts as a driving force behind the US dollar's rally amidst changing forecasts for the Fed's rate. If at the beginning of last week, investors leaned towards the first rate cut occurring in June with a total of 3 cuts in 2024, by the end of the week, expectations for the first cut were evenly split between June and July.

This indicates that the dollar looks more than confident compared to its competitors. There is virtually no reason for selling it, except for one factor - a rise in gold prices, which may indicate an overall increase in demand for safe-haven assets in anticipation of a global slowdown.

Recommended Stories

Defisit Anggaran Inggris Sedikit Menyempit Berkat Pajak

Pound merespons berita bahwa defisit anggaran Inggris pada bulan Juli lebih menyempit daripada yang diperkirakan dengan peningkatan moderat, karena pembayaran pajak penghasilan yang dinilai sendiri meningkatkan kas Departemen Keuangan, sehingga

Jakub Novak 10:48 2025-08-21 UTC+2

Gubernur Federal Reserve Christopher Waller Mendukung Revolusi Teknologi

Melihat dari fakta bahwa semakin sedikit pejabat Fed yang membahas prospek kebijakan moneter AS dalam pernyataan mereka, bisa jadi secepat besok, dalam pidatonya, Ketua Fed Jerome Powell dapat mengumumkan perubahan

Jakub Novak 10:42 2025-08-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analisis dan Prediksi

Hari ini, pasangan EUR/USD kehilangan posisi di tengah penguatan dolar AS setelah rilis notulen rapat FOMC pada hari Rabu. Dokumen tersebut mencatat bahwa sebagian besar anggota Fed menekankan bahwa risiko

Irina Yanina 10:29 2025-08-21 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analisis dan Prediksi

Pasangan USD/JPY tetap berada dalam rentang yang sama selama tiga minggu terakhir, menunggu dorongan baru untuk mendorong tahap pergerakan berikutnya. Ketidakpastian mengenai waktu kenaikan suku bunga Bank of Japan terus

Irina Yanina 10:23 2025-08-21 UTC+2

Pasar Menjual Raksasa

Seseorang tidak dapat selalu mengikuti perkembangan saham teknologi dan kecerdasan buatan. Cepat atau lambat, akan terlihat bahwa nilai saham tersebut sudah terlalu tinggi. Penurunan selama dua hari tidak bisa dianggap

Marek Petkovich 10:15 2025-08-21 UTC+2

Inflasi Tetap Menjadi Kekhawatiran yang Lebih Besar Dibandingkan Pasar Tenaga Kerja

Dolar sebagian besar mengabaikan notulen Fed kemarin, dan ada alasan objektif untuk itu. Pada pertemuan bulan lalu, sebagian besar pejabat Federal Reserve menekankan bahwa risiko inflasi lebih besar daripada kekhawatiran

Jakub Novak 09:56 2025-08-21 UTC+2

Apakah Powell Akan Memperkenalkan Model Kebijakan Moneter Baru di Jackson Hole? (Ada kemungkinan EUR/USD dan GBP/USD berbalik naik)

Pasar berada dalam posisi yang menantang di tengah ketidakpastian apakah The Fed akan memangkas suku bunga pada bulan September atau tidak. Ini adalah pertanyaan yang sangat penting, karena pengaruh bank

Pati Gani 09:37 2025-08-21 UTC+2

Apa yang Perlu Diperhatikan pada 21 Agustus? Rincian Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pemula

Sejumlah laporan makroekonomi dijadwalkan untuk hari Kamis, sehingga sepanjang hari, data tersebut akan memberikan pengaruh yang stabil pada pergerakan di pasar valuta asing. Namun, pengaruh ini kemungkinan tidak akan kuat

Paolo Greco 07:35 2025-08-21 UTC+2

Gambaran Umum GBP/USD – 21 Agustus: Inflasi dan Perang Dagang Masih Tetap Ada

Pada hari Rabu, pasangan mata uang GBP/USD melanjutkan pergerakan turun yang lambat. Sementara euro tetap stabil dalam beberapa hari terakhir, pound sterling menunjukkan sedikit koreksi. Namun, hal ini tidak mengubah

Paolo Greco 04:16 2025-08-21 UTC+2

Gambaran Umum EUR/USD – 21 Agustus: Biarkan Powell Sendiri

Pada hari Rabu, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD terus diperdagangkan dalam kondisi datar dengan volatilitas rendah. Banyak ahli menunjukkan alasan jelas untuk perilaku pasar seperti ini pada minggu ini. Namun, banyak

Paolo Greco 04:16 2025-08-21 UTC+2
Tidak bisa bicara sekarang?
Tanyakan pertanyaan anda lewat chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.