Trade Review and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3193 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

According to the data, the UK's GDP for the fourth quarter of last year was not revised and remained at 1.0% year-on-year. This figure matched the previous quarter, showing no significant acceleration or slowdown. Nevertheless, a 1.0% growth rate appears modest given the size and growth potential of the UK economy. Such a low GDP growth rate raises concerns about its sustainability in the longer term—especially in light of the new energy crisis.

In the second half of the day, important macroeconomic data will be released, traditionally attracting the attention of investors and analysts. First, the market is awaiting the US consumer confidence index. This indicator reflects consumer sentiment. Positive dynamics in this indicator may signal the strength of the US economy and support optimistic investor sentiment. Additionally, the Chicago PMI will be released later in the day. This report is an important leading indicator of the US manufacturing sector, which largely determines overall economic trends. Strong Chicago PMI data may confirm the resilience of industrial production and support the US dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3217 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3240 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3240, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). Pound growth today can be expected after weak US data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3196 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward 1.3217 and 1.3240 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3196 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3170, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3217 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3196 and 1.3170 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – expected level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – expected level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.