The four-hour (H4) chart for Crude Oil (#CL) reveals a sharp, aggressive bearish trend, with the downward momentum accelerating. Currently trading at 85.83, the price has decisively broken through several key technical support levels and critical pivot points—a clear indication that selling pressure dominates and the bears are in control of the short-term market movement.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price is moving within a broad, primary descending channel that reflects the overall negative trend. Overlaid on this is a steeper, secondary descending channel, which exerts direct, forceful pressure on the price, driving it toward a succession of new lows. Notably, the price is currently positioned near the lower boundaries of these channels, with minor fluctuations suggesting an attempt to establish a temporary support base following the sustained decline.

Interaction with Pivot and Resistance Levels: The price faced intense downward pressure after failing to hold above key pivot levels—specifically the weekly pivot at 93.24—as well as upper resistance levels, such as the Weekly R1 (99.83) and Weekly R2 (109.33). Consequently, the price broke through support lines and is now trading below the pivot, moving progressively toward the first weekly support level (Weekly S1), located near 83.74.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 88.00 – 89.00 (near-term intraday resistance zones and median lines).

Second Resistance: 93.24 (Weekly Pivot point and the threshold for the intraday trend).

Pivotal Resistance: 99.83 (Weekly R1 resistance level).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 83.74 (Weekly S1 support level and the immediate target for bearish momentum).

Second Support: 82.00 (a major psychological support level and the lower boundary of the price range).

Pivotal Support: The 80.50 zone and below, should the price collapse continue and selling momentum intensify.

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations:

Bearish Scenario (Primary):

The negative trend remains dominant and most likely, provided the price stays below the near-term resistance levels and the Weekly Pivot point of 93.24.

Recommendation: It is advisable to sell into any corrective upward rebounds toward the 87.50 – 89.00 range, as long as these levels continue to cap any price advances.

Technical Targets: Aim to break the current low, reaching the first weekly support level at 83.74, with a potential extension toward 82.00.

Corrective Bullish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario would be triggered if significant buying pressure emerges, successfully lifting prices from current lows and breaking through the technical resistance levels. Confirmation Condition: A 4-hour candle must close clearly above the nearby resistance level at 89.00.

Technical Targets: This would pave the way for a deeper bullish correction, targeting the weekly pivot level at 93.24.

Risk Management

During periods of decline and high negative momentum in the crude oil markets, it is strongly advised to avoid entering trades haphazardly without a clear plan. It is essential to strictly adhere to rigorous capital management rules, limiting risk to a maximum of 2% per trade. Furthermore, stop-loss orders must be placed with precision to protect the portfolio against sharp reversals and sudden volatility.

Price Action on the Crude Oil (#CL) Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at 85.83, below the ascending channel on the daily timeframe. It has experienced a sharp decline and widespread selling pressure, leading to a downward breakout below the monthly pivot point (100.05) and the first monthly support level (Monthly S1 at 89.59).

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday's and Today's):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected intense selling pressure and an accelerated decline, breaking through key support levels and confirming the dominance of negative momentum.

Today's Candle: Shows a continuation of the bearish momentum, with the price attempting to reach new lows near 85.83, amid clear dominance by the bears.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): Remains highly probable as long as the price stays below the broken support levels and the monthly pivot point. The decline could potentially continue, targeting the next monthly support level at 76.41 (Monthly S2).

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): Would be triggered if sudden buying pressure emerges, pushing the price to rebound and climb back above the 89.59 level (Monthly S1), thereby easing the negative pressure.