Trade analysis and guidance on trading the euro

The first test of the 1.1730 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro — especially in such a bullish market.

The fact that actual inflation in the eurozone matched analysts' expectations helped keep EUR/USD relatively stable. Despite the lack of surprises in macroeconomic data, market sentiment remains on the side of risk-asset buyers.

During the U.S. trading session, no economic data releases are scheduled, so attention will shift to public speeches by FOMC members Beth M. Hammack and Austan D. Goolsbee. Investors will closely analyze their comments for signals regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Market participants hope to gain more clarity on the timing and scale of potential interest-rate cuts next year. Disagreements among FOMC members could trigger volatility in financial markets. In addition to FOMC speeches, investors will also watch for other news capable of influencing market sentiment, including geopolitical developments. Overall, the U.S. session is expected to be relatively calm, with a fairly high probability of dollar strengthening by the end of the week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will be focusing primarily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Buying the euro is possible today when the price reaches the 1.1736 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1758. At 1.1758 I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point move from the entry. A strong rise can be expected as part of the ongoing bullish market. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1719 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1736 and 1.1758 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1719 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1701, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move upward from the level). Downward pressure on the pair will return today only if FRS representatives take a very hawkish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1736 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1719 and 1.1701 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where one can buy the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price where one can sell the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders must make market-entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money-management rules and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.