Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1897 occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly from the zero mark, limiting the upward potential of the euro. For this reason, I did not buy euros.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump announced that his nominee for the position of head of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, would be able to boost the US economy by 15%, which prompted dollar sales, as it is obvious to everyone that such a result is unlikely to be achieved without active rate cuts and inflating the economy with money—hardly anyone believes the US economy can grow at that kind of pace. Stephen Miran, a Fed representative, also publicly stated his position on further interest rate cuts, which went unnoticed by traders and put pressure on the dollar.

Today, there are no Eurozone data releases in the first half of the day, so the upward momentum of EUR/USD risks losing steam. In recent days, the currency pair has been rising confidently amid the weakening dollar caused by dovish statements from the Federal Reserve. However, the lack of important indicators from Europe may slow down active buying of the euro.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, buying euros can be considered when the price reaches around 1.1914 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1936. At the level of 1.1936, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can look for growth in the euro today within the overall upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1896 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposing levels of 1.1914 and 1.1936 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1896 (red line on the chart). The target will be at 1.1876, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will revert as part of a minor correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also intend to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1914 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.1896 and 1.1876 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.