यह भी देखें
11.02.2026 12:32 AM
Trump expects Kevin Warsh to rev up the US economy by 15% per year. This is yet another instance where all market participants thought it was a joke, when in fact there's very little humor in it. Since January of last year, Donald Trump has promised Americans an economic revival. Many voters and taxpayers are dissatisfied with Trump's policies, particularly in the economic domain. This discontent is easily explained. Inflation, rising prices of critical goods, significant increases in the cost of imported goods, rising government service costs, and increasing unemployment are all concerns. However, Trump and his advisor, Kevin Hassett, have promised that ordinary Americans will not even notice rising prices because they will have more money in their pockets. Various publications have reported that the White House leader plans to distribute $2,000 to every American. It's no surprise; elections are coming, and the Republican Party may lose. Protests and rallies against Trump's policies are ongoing across America. Voters need to be placated urgently.
Returning to Warsh's nomination, Trump stated that appointing Jerome Powell as chair of the Fed eight years ago was a big mistake, even though he had previously expressed confusion and surprise about who appointed such a poor head of the Fed. It's good that his memory has returned, but the demands on Warsh will be even stricter than on Powell. By hinting at a rate cut, Trump indicated that the new Fed chair could boost the economy to 15% if he does his job well. "Well" can be interpreted as "following the White House's directives." If interest rates are lowered to zero, the economy could accelerate further from the current 4.4% quarterly growth rate. If rates are made negative, growth could even become double-digit.
I wouldn't dismiss the idea of negative rates as something unimaginable. With Trump, anything is possible. Who could have imagined a year ago that Trump would seriously intend to claim vast territories from Denmark and the European Union? Who expected Trump to suggest that Canada become the 51st state of the US and to be offended by its refusal? In short, the president expects an economic boom, and Warsh is expected to deliver it.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. The policies of Trump and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current trend segment could reach the 25 figure. At present, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect price increases in the first half of 2026. However, in the near term, I expect a downward wave (or series of waves), as the structure a-b-c-d-e also appears complete. In the near future, my readers can look for areas and levels for new long positions with targets located around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended appearance. I believe that in the near future, we may observe the construction of a corrective wave set, after which the upward trend will resume. Consequently, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities for new longs. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of reaching 1.45-1.50$. Trump himself welcomes a decline in the dollar's exchange rate. All his actions have a dual effect: the decline of the dollar and the resolution of domestic, external, trade, and geopolitical issues.
