Bitcoin is barely holding around $76,500. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine, said yesterday that the market is already at the bottom. His remarks came amid a tech sell-off, with the Nasdaq-100 entering a technical correction after falling more than 10% from its October high. Tom Lee himself warned that a bottom is dangerous because you can't know how much downside remains.

Lee's first argument rests on the difference between an industry that can't keep up with demand and one that has built excess capacity. In his view, the AI market remains very tight — there is no general overcapacity — and growth is being held back by spending constraints, including political resistance. Intel is a telling example: on Friday, the stock plunged nearly 30% to $65.76 after a weak Q4 outlook. Yet revenue in its data center and AI segment grew 78% to $7.3 billion, but production constraints prevented the company from filling all orders. As a result, strong demand and collapsing share prices coexist.

Lee's second point concerns crypto itself. He points to the relatively muted market reaction to the Binance hack, which the exchange initially estimated at roughly $6.3 billion. By Lee's logic, if crypto is a leading risk indicator, sellers have already been washed out of the market.

I acknowledge the strength of that argument, but recent data do not fully support it. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost another $399 million on Monday, and Bitcoin closed its fourth consecutive red week. Moreover, a Fed rate hike in December has become the market's base scenario, and expensive money hits both tech and Bitcoin. I don't think the current move is a confirmed bottom yet. In the coming days, I expect one more test of support at $75,000, and only if that level holds can we look for a rebound to $78,000.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $76,900, which would open a direct path to $78,500, and then toward $79,900 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $75,300. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $72,900. The next downside target would be around $71,100.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,283 would open a direct path to $2,331. The farther target is the $2,383 high; overcoming that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,230. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,176. The next downside target would be around $2,137.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.