Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3483 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was starting its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair only dropped by 10 pips.

Despite the potential instability that could result from an open confrontation between the president and the head of the US central bank, investors seemed to have taken a wait-and-see approach. This may be because the legal aspects of dismissing Powell, which Trump hinted at yesterday, remain contentious, and the market assesses the probability of such an action as low. Furthermore, Trump's remarks may have been perceived as yet another attempt to pressure the Federal Reserve into easing monetary policy. The lack of key economic data from the US also contributed to the market's restrained reaction.

Today, there is again no report from the UK, so trading is likely to remain within a sideways channel. The absence of macroeconomic drivers capable of pulling the British pound out of this prolonged consolidation leaves traders waiting. Focus is shifting to external factors: the dynamics of the global economy and any geopolitical risks that may indirectly affect the British currency. In the absence of domestic indicators, market participants will closely monitor news from the Eurozone and the US. Technical analysis will play a crucial role in the current situation. Traders will focus on support and resistance levels, as well as graphic patterns, to determine potential entry and exit points.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3528 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3555 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3555, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is unlikely to expect strong growth from the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3506 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.3538 and 1.3555.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level at 1.3506 (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3472 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pound sellers may manifest within the scope of a correction. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3528 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3506 and 1.3472.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.