Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency

The test of the price at 1.1601 occurred when the MACD indicator had fallen significantly from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test at 1.1601 prompted the implementation of scenario #2 to buy the euro; however, the pair did not immediately surge.

The euro responded with growth yesterday, only to the news that the US and Iranian delegations, negotiating with Pakistan's mediation, are showing signs of rapprochement. Tehran is currently carefully reviewing the new proposal submitted by the American side. However, despite progress in the dialogue process, the Iranian side has not yet provided a definitive response, indicating ongoing complexities. The key disagreements preventing a comprehensive agreement center around two critical issues: the Iranian nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. These aspects raise the greatest concerns and require detailed elaboration before the parties can move to the final stage of negotiations.

Today, the focus turns to Germany in the first half of the day. Analyzing the dynamics of Germany's GDP serves as a barometer of the German economy's overall health. The Ifo Institute's business activity indexes will also play a key role in gauging the pulse of the German economy. The business climate index is a composite indicator combining an assessment of the current situation and future expectations. The current situation assessment indicator will help gauge how satisfied businesses are with the current state of affairs, while the economic expectations index will serve as a predictive tool reflecting the business outlook for the economy over the next six months.

In the case of positive data, the euro could strengthen against the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will lean more towards implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1623 (the green line on the chart), aiming to rise to 1.1659. At point 1.1659, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. The possibility of the euro rising depends on good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1607 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1623 and 1.1659.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1607 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1570, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also intend to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1623 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1607 and 1.1570.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.