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13.08.2026 05:44 AM
The GBP/USD pair showed no movement on Wednesday that was anticipated. After the release of the U.S. inflation report, the British pound began to rise as the likelihood of a further tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy diminished. However, just a few hours later, the U.S. dollar began to strengthen, for reasons that are quite difficult to explain. By the end of the day, the American currency had risen minimally, so it cannot be said that the market reversed and a downward trend began to form. However, the British pound did not show growth where it easily could have. Over the past two weeks, the pair has been rising quite weakly, but the upward trend remains, as indicated by the ascending channel. A price consolidation below it will indicate the end of the upward trend, but it is unclear what will drive the dollar higher next. Currently, there is no geopolitical, fundamental, or macroeconomic support for the U.S. dollar. Of course, this does not mean that the British pound will now grow constantly and every day, but the dollar can currently only expect corrections.
On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Wednesday. There were no grounds for beginners to open trades yesterday. On Thursday morning, the price is near 1.3456-1.3476, so one or more signals may form throughout the day. However, volatility is likely to remain low again.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward trend. In our view, the British pound should continue to rise, even if local factors do not provide support. On the weekly timeframe, the movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary continues. And this movement is not completed. The market's confidence in a rate hike by the Fed in September is evaporating, as recent U.S. macroeconomic data has been weak. Only a consolidation below the ascending channel on the hourly timeframe could allow the dollar to expect growth.
On Thursday, novice traders can open short positions if consolidation occurs below the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. Long positions can be opened targeting 1.3587-1.3598 if the price rebounds today from the 1.3456-1.3476 area.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695. On Thursday, the UK will release GDP data for the second quarter and industrial production data for June. In the U.S., the producer price index will be published. We believe that the market's reaction to these releases will be weak.
Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.
Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
