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06.11.2026 10:23 AMOn the hourly chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the US dollar on Thursday and consolidated below the 1.3454–1.3469 support level. As a result, the pair began declining toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3404. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and could lead to a recovery toward the 1.3454–1.3469 level. Consolidation below 1.3404 would increase the likelihood of further declines toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 1.3342.
The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the latest upward wave broke above the previous high. Thus, the bulls continue to control the market. The market has already priced in further FOMC monetary policy tightening in the near term, while the Bank of England's tightening cycle is only beginning. A renewed upward move in the pound is expected after the corrective pullback is complete.
The fundamental background on Thursday allowed bullish traders to continue their strong advance. However, it became clear that the hawkish outcome of the Bank of England meeting had already been priced in by the market. Consequently, the interest rate hike did not trigger another rally in the pound. Moreover, the pound is declining quite sharply on Friday, as the market is once again concerned about a possible resumption of hostilities in the Middle East and strong US labor market data. There are reasons to question whether the labor market and unemployment reports will actually be strong. However, the conflict in the Middle East could indeed resume in the near future, as Donald Trump can still make decisions about military operations without seeking approval from Congress. Congress will undoubtedly attempt to block a war with Iran by passing the relevant legislation. However, Trump has veto power, which he can use to block any decisions made by Democrats. In my view, the likelihood of renewed hostilities is increasing again. The congressional elections have taken place, and Trump had intended to resume attacks on Iran afterward.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3469–1.3482 resistance level, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and declined to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3405. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and could lead to a recovery toward the 1.3469–1.3482 resistance level. Consolidation below 1.3405 would increase the likelihood of further declines toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 1.3342. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 2,417, while the number of Short positions rose by 1,411. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 57,000 versus 136,000. The bears maintain a substantial advantage, which continues to widen over time. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestionable, but the situation has become less clear as the fundamental background has changed in recent months.
The bearish trend in the pound is still not considered convincing. However, developments in the near future will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had even properly begun. The war between the two countries could resume in full force as early as November.
On November 6, the economic calendar contains four events, with Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate being the most significant. The impact of economic data on market sentiment could be substantial on Friday.
Selling opportunities emerged after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3469 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3404 and 1.3342. The first target has been reached, and the positions can remain open. Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from 1.3404, with a target of 1.3454–1.3469.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3674 to 1.3137 on the 4-hour chart.
