Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1055 occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro and resulting in a 30-pip rise in the pair.

Yesterday's decision by Donald Trump to suspend tariffs for 90 days prompted an immediate reaction: the U.S. dollar surged while the euro weakened. This step was aimed at stabilizing the economy amid growing global instability. However, if more long-term and fundamental measures aren't implemented, the effect of this pause may be short-lived. Investors wary of trade conflicts saw this as a chance to ease tensions, but this move is unlikely to have a lasting impact. A retreat by the U.S. on tariffs might be perceived more as a sign of weakness than strength, something key trade partners have long feared.

Meanwhile, analysts and investors remain closely monitoring the economic situation in the eurozone. Today's industrial production figures from Italy may show mixed dynamics. A consistent decline has yet to be replaced by significant growth, indicating that stabilization in the sector remains elusive. Conversely, the Bundesbank's monthly report could reflect more optimistic trends in the German economy. Despite ongoing issues in global supply chains, the German industry is showing signs of modest growth, supported by both domestic and foreign demand.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the euro at 1.1016 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1087. At 1.1087, I will exit the market and open short positions, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips. A rise in the euro in the first half of the day can only be expected if economic data is strong.

Important! Before entering a long trade, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0974 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward 1.1016 and 1.1087 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0974 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0914, where I will exit the short and open a long position (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Selling pressure could return quickly today.

Important! Before entering a short trade, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1016 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.0974 and 1.0914 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.