Trade analysis and trading advice for the Japanese yen

The 160.72 price test occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 160.72 triggered Scenario No. 2 for buying the dollar, resulting in a 30-point rise in the pair.

US markets are taking a break today: the country is celebrating Independence Day, meaning stock exchanges and most trading platforms are closed. For the currency market, the absence of the US session is a clear factor: without the main pool of participants, liquidity thins out and price fluctuations become smaller in scale. Under such conditions, the second half of the day for the dollar is expected to be calm and uneventful, with no clear drivers for movement. The Japanese yen in this context will remain primarily driven by the Asian session: after it closes, the USD/JPY pair is likely to stagnate in a narrow range, as the absence of US liquidity removes the main source of volatility for the pair. However, intervention from the Japanese regulator cannot be ruled out, so further currency interventions aimed at strengthening the yen should not be fully excluded.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 161.24 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 162.18 (thicker green line on the chart). At 162.18, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move back from the level). A rise in the pair today is possible but rather limited.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 160.83 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward 161.24 and 162.18 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 160.83 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 160.00, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return today if the central bank intervenes.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 161.24 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 160.83 and 160.00 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or manual exit point, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or manual exit point, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing intraday strategy.