Review for Monday:

1H chart of the GBP/USD pair

The GBP/USD pair on Monday neither continued its decline nor began a meaningful rise. Volatility during the first trading day of the week was predictably low, so we saw no interesting moves. Moreover, no notable events or releases occurred in the UK or the US during the day, so the market had nothing to react to. The downtrend persists, as shown by the trend line, so technically sterling has everything it needs in the short term to continue falling. Will such a move be justified? In our view, probably not. The market continues to focus only on factors that support the dollar and ignores the rest. The Bank of England may also tighten policy in the coming months, likely at least twice as well as the Federal Reserve, but the mere "may tighten" narrative has repeatedly supported the dollar rather than the pound.

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, three trading signals formed — all weak and false due to the extremely low volatility during the day. From low to high, the pair moved no more than about 40 pips. With such low volatility, expecting profits from any intraday signals is unrealistic.

How to trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues a downward trend that has become a full-blown move. The fundamental backdrop for the dollar and the pound changed sharply last week as the Fed signaled readiness to continue tightening monetary policy. As a result, the dollar's outlook for the second half of 2026 looks materially more favorable again. However, the dollar has no other supporting factors.

On Tuesday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3319–1.3331, since price closed below the 1.3380–1.3386 area. Open long positions targeting 1.3456–1.3476 if price settles above the 1.3380–1.3386 zone.

On the 5-minute timeframe, you can trade the levels 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741. No major events or releases are scheduled in the UK or the US on Tuesday either; meaningful economic information will start arriving no earlier than Wednesday. Therefore, we can expect a "boring Monday" repeat today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.