The test of the 1.3474 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. However, the pound rose by only 10 points.

Yesterday, the Bank of England did everything the market expected and even a little more. The interest rate was raised to 4.00%, with the voting results showing a unanimous 9-0-0 decision. This was the first unanimous decision in more than three years. Nevertheless, the pound remained weaker than the US dollar. The reason is that the rate hike had already been priced in, while the US currency received strong support. Initial jobless claims in the United States came in at 189,000, below the forecast of 197,000, while labor productivity increased by 3.6% in the third quarter, compared with expectations of 2.8%. These figures were accompanied by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack about the need for restrictive monetary policy.

Today, the pound remains in the shadow of the US dollar. During the first half of the day, the only scheduled releases are the Lloyds house price index, which is unlikely to change much based on the forecast, and a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. No new signals are expected from him, as his hawkish stance is already well known to the market. Yesterday's hawkish tone from Bailey also showed that even confident remarks from the central bank governor are currently insufficient to generate interest in the pound. In my view, under these circumstances, UK news simply cannot outweigh the influence of US developments.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the pound will be considered for buying when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3431 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.3446 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3446, the long position will be closed, and a short position will be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from that level. The pound can only be expected to rise today following very strong UK economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The pound will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 1.3420 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3431 and 1.3446 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the pound will be considered for selling after the price breaks below the 1.3420 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3403, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from that level. Negative news will bring renewed pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The pound will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 1.3431 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3420 and 1.3403 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.