Fresh business surveys issued on March 24, 2026, confirmed a synchronized macroeconomic shock on a global scale. Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) registered a sharp fall in major economies, driven by a decline in commodity supplies and rising logistics costs due to the military conflict in Iran.

The euro area’s composite PMI worsened more than markets had expected, and manufacturing activity in India hit its weakest level since 2021. “An incipient recovery will be suppressed by the combination of higher oil prices, tighter financial conditions, and fading business confidence,” Jamie Rush, head of global economics at Bloomberg Economics, said.

The ECB and the Bank of England have shifted rhetoric toward hawkish vigilance to curb inflation expectations amid the energy crisis. The European Central Bank is considering a rate hike in April 2026, while the Bank of Japan does not rule out a similar move to stabilize the financial system.

Forecasts point to greater resilience in the US manufacturing sector compared with European and Asian markets. The key factor shaping macro dynamics in 2026 will be the duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and how quickly monetary authorities can counter the effects of a sharp rise in oil prices.