BofA Securities analysts warned on March 26, 2026, that the Federal Reserve could shift back into a rate‑hiking cycle amid soaring energy prices. The escalation of the military conflict in Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have created conditions for a prolonged increase in inflationary pressure in the United States.

BofA Securities expert Aditya Bhave said that tightening monetary conditions is the most likely scenario if WTI averages in the $80–100 range. On Wednesday, the Brent futures contract plunged 4.1% to $100.23 a barrel.

The disruption of tanker traffic through the key waterway, which carries about one-fifth of global oil consumption, has already driven up gasoline prices at US pumps. S&P Global business survey data shows that US industrial firms already face high additional costs for commodity purchases.

The Federal Reserve will only revert to a dovish policy if consumer demand collapses sharply as a result of a short-lived price spike. The negative impact of a prolonged sell‑off in the stock market and the threat of weakening employment will force the central bank to balance between containing inflation and supporting economic growth during the crisis.