Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1264 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by only 5 points.

I remained confident in the pair's upward movement until the very end yesterday, but the economic data changed everything. The euro fell sharply against the dollar because U.S. economic data was more convincing than its European counterparts. The U.S. labor market figures were particularly impressive. The private sector added 86,000 jobs in October, compared with analysts' expectations of 67,000. This performance indicates that companies continue to hire actively. This is a significant argument in favor of the dollar, as sustained demand for workers gives the Federal Reserve considerable room to continue raising interest rates.

Today, the euro enters the first half of the trading day with a solid set of economic releases, although the key events are scheduled for the evening. German industrial orders are expected to increase by 4.9%, French industrial production is forecast to rise by 0.4%, Italian retail sales are expected to remain unchanged, and the eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be released. The latter is attracting the most attention, as rising producer prices generally feed through into consumer prices, which influence the ECB's policy decisions. The annual rate is expected to accelerate to 10.9% from 8.2%. A higher reading would strengthen expectations of further monetary policy tightening.

In the evening, attention will shift to speeches by Christine Lagarde and Joachim Nagel. Last week, Lagarde stated that the direction of monetary policy was clear unless major developments occurred. Today's comments are likely to reinforce this position. Such predictability generally calms the market and may provide additional support for the euro. The expectation is that the single currency will remain attractive to buyers until the U.S. trading session, with producer price data serving as the main reference point.

As for the intraday strategy, the primary focus will be on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: The euro can be bought today if the price reaches the 1.1270 level (the green line on the chart), with an upward target at 1.1305. At 1.1305, the position will be closed, and a short position will also be opened in anticipation of a 30–35-point move from the entry point. Further euro appreciation today can only be expected if economic data is positive.

Important! Before opening a buy position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1255 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The expected upward targets are the opposite levels of 1.1270 and 1.1305.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: The euro will be sold after the price reaches the 1.1255 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1228, where the position will be closed and a buy position will immediately be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Downward pressure on the pair is likely to return if economic data is weak.

Important! Before opening a sell position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1270 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The expected downward targets are the opposite levels of 1.1255 and 1.1228.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use Stop Loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without Stop Loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clearly defined trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.