Macroeconomic Report Review:

There are a few macroeconomic releases scheduled for Thursday. However, in the United States, an important August inflation report will be published, which could provoke a strong market reaction if it prints a surprise figure. Any value outside the 2.7–2.9% range would be considered a substantial surprise. Lower-than-expected inflation (relative to previous readings and forecasts) could trigger a dollar sell-off. Higher inflation would support the US currency. No important releases are planned today in the UK, Germany, or the Eurozone.

Fundamental Events Review:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, the European Central Bank meeting and Christine Lagarde's press conference stand out. However, no major decisions or statements are expected. The ECB has reduced all three key rates to neutral and has succeeded in bringing inflation down to its target level. In the near term, the ECB has no reason to change monetary policy parameters.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs could resume their upward movement, but a lot will depend on the US inflation report. Both the euro and the pound have shown illogical declines over the past two days, so today the market may try to "restore justice." For the euro, further movement depends on fresh signals, which may form in the 1.1655–1.1666 and 1.1737–1.1745 areas. The pound sterling is currently in the 1.3529–1.3543 zone, but generated numerous false signals there yesterday. Today's movements may be just as chaotic, but with increased volatility.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.