See also
18.12.2025 12:28 AM
The recent economic reports from the U.S. labor market hit like a thunderbolt. I'm not saying that most market participants expected positive numbers; rather, the opposite. I had warned that it would be extremely difficult to expect positive outcomes from the U.S. labor market even after three rounds of monetary policy easing. However, the labor market data for October and November surprised with their weakness.
To summarize, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% in November. The Nonfarm Payrolls for October were -105,000, and for November, they were 60,000. If we sum all the values, including the upward revision of the September figure, it's not so bad. However, in my opinion, the key figure is the unemployment rate. It has been rising since April 2023, when it reached a low of 3.4%.
All this information is interesting in itself and suggests further weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, as I mentioned, it will have long-term consequences. Firstly, it's now clear that the FOMC committee didn't ease policy "blindly" in December for no reason. Secondly, the November payroll figure shows recovery, but it's still too weak to consider the task of blocking further "cooling" of the U.S. labor market accomplished. Thirdly, the Fed may have to continue lowering interest rates in January 2026.
I would like to remind you that last week, Jerome Powell mentioned a potential pause early next year. I now doubt this pause. Before the labor market reports were released, futures markets assessed the probability of easing in January at 20%. Now, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, that probability has risen to 77%. Hence, we may be expecting another round of policy easing in January.
This week (on Thursday), another inflation report will be released, likely providing insight into what to expect from the FOMC in January. If inflation decreases from its current 3%, the likelihood of a new round of easing will grow even stronger. Demand for the U.S. dollar will continue to decline. If inflation accelerates, then the January meeting will become a battle between the "hawks" and the "doves." The Fed is becoming increasingly mired in a swamp. Balancing between inflation and unemployment is becoming more difficult every day.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors affecting the long-term decline of the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment may reach the 25-figure mark. The current upward wave structure is beginning to unfold, and I hope we are witnessing the construction of an impulsive wave set that is part of the global wave 5. In this case, we should expect growth up to the 25 figure, as I mentioned earlier.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become more complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 seems complete, just like the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.
In the short term, I anticipated the construction of wave 3 or c, with targets near 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c continues to develop, and the current wave set is beginning to take an impulsive form. Consequently, we can expect an ongoing increase in quotes with targets around 1.3580 and 1.3630.
