Trade Review and Trading Advice for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1657 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark. However, given the escalation of the geopolitical conflict, I continued selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.1605.

Amid intensified U.S. military maneuvers against Iran, the European currency continued to decline. A new peak of tension is being observed in the Middle East, leading to a drop in risk assets. Investors, concerned about the potential expansion of the conflict and its impact on the global economy, continue to actively withdraw capital from risky positions in the currency market, favoring safer assets — the U.S. dollar. During periods of instability, investors traditionally move into the U.S. currency, increasing pressure on the euro and other global currencies. The coming weeks are expected to be critically important for the dynamics of the dollar and euro exchange rates. Any changes in the geopolitical situation or statements from influential parties could dramatically affect the current state of affairs.

No important macroeconomic data releases are expected in the second half of today. The only release will be the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. In the absence of other significant economic reports, traders' attention will shift to statements from two key representatives of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): John Williams and Neel Kashkari. Their remarks may provide important guidance on future U.S. monetary policy amid the new war with Iran. Market participants will closely monitor any signals of a shift in rhetoric from Fed officials, especially in the context of military actions in the Middle East.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1626 level (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.1679. At 1.1679, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Strong euro growth today is unlikely.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1592 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1626 and 1.1679 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1592 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1540, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1626 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1592 and 1.1540 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated level to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated level to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.