As we enter 2026, global trade is facing new challenges following a transformative period over the past few years. Although 2025 showed relative resilience amid President Trump's tariff implementation, underlying changes are emerging: incoming shipments to the United States have decreased by 8%, while imports to Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India have shown robust growth.

Global supply chains are already adapting to the new tariff barriers. Shipping industry veteran John McCown noted that while container imports to the US rose by 15.2% in 2024, 2025 saw a reversal of this trend. “I believe 2026 will be the year of the tariff consequences,” he warned. The restructuring of supply routes is currently underway and could lead to additional costs and delays.

Two factors could significantly disrupt global supply chains in 2026. The first is the return of vessels to the Red Sea following a decrease in Houthi attacks and the implementation of a peace plan for Gaza in October. Carriers CMA CGM SA and A.P. Moller-Maersk have already begun sending ships to the region. Secondly, a potential acceleration of the US economy could trigger a sharp increase in inventory levels, overwhelming the capacities of the shipping industry, Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen cautioned.