Ratings agency Moody’s forecasts India’s real economic growth at 6.4% for the fiscal year 2026-2027, which begins in April. According to the agency, India is likely to remain the fastest‑growing economy among G20 nations in the upcoming fiscal year. The country’s banking sector is expected to remain stable over the next 12 to 18 months, bolstered by a favorable economic environment, high asset quality, profitability, liquidity, and government support.

Moody’s forecast is notably more conservative than the projections from India’s Ministry of Finance. In its annual economic review presented to Parliament, the ministry anticipates growth rates between 6.8% and 7.2% for fiscal year 2026-2027. Despite external factors of uncertainty in key trading partner countries, disruptions in global trade due to rising tariffs, and capital market volatility, which could impact Indian exports, the ministry expressed confidence in achieving these figures.

The disparity in forecasts between Moody’s and the Indian government reflects their differing assessments of how global risks will impact the Indian economy. However, both projections affirm India’s status as one of the key drivers of global economic growth.