Bitcoin and Ether continue their downward move, repeatedly fed by fresh negative headlines. Recall that recent developments for the crypto world have been broadly negative. Central banks — notably the Fed — continue to tighten monetary policy, the Clarity Act remains only a bill, Democrats won the U.S. Congressional elections, further reducing the odds that the Clarity Act becomes law, and historically Bitcoin has tended to fall after midterms. Last week the list of headwinds grew with the hack of the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance. Taken together, the fundamentals for further growth in the crypto market remain, to put it mildly, doubtful. We do not deny that the asset can rally in any news environment, but at present there are no technical signals or fundamental reasons to expect a sustainable rise.

Many independent analysts (those who do not predict eternal Bitcoin rallies under any circumstances) continue to note weak spot demand for the leading crypto. Recall that the recent three-month rally in "digital gold" was driven mainly by futures positions, which rarely provide a rock solid basis for a long-term trend. Wintermute noted that about $1.5bn of trader positions were flushed from the market last week alone; of that $1.5bn roughly 85% were long positions. The last Bitcoin advance was associated with leveraged long exposure. In plain terms, spot buying remains scarce, and leveraged positions tend to be liquidated by the market at the first opportunity.

Wintermute analysts also say that if Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 on inflows of spot capital and renewed ETF demand, it could enter a new local bull phase. Its longer-term outlook, however, remains cloudy. A failure below $76,800 would, conversely, bring bears back to the market. The firm also notes that ETF outflows have continued for much of 2026. In our view, there are still no solid grounds for a sustained bullish trend for digital gold.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin attempted to start a new uptrend, but the fundamental backdrop, spot demand and recent news are too weak to count on continuation. On the daily timeframe Bitcoin may remain in decline, as price reacted to two bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. A move outside the daily sideways channel is currently interpreted as a deviation. Thus Bitcoin generated a reversal signal and set course for $70,800. Because a flat does not guarantee the end of the primary trend, we do not consider the bearish trend finished. Short positions are the most relevant in the near term. Note the active bearish FVG on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD:

The daily technical picture for Ether has changed. Ether produced a significant upward impulse in June–September 2026 that could mark the start of a new long-term trend. However, at the same time there is no confidence that Bitcoin's bear market has ended. If Bitcoin remains in a downtrend or even a flat, do not expect Ether to rally. Bitcoin has generated enough sell signals and bearish patterns on the daily chart to continue or resume its decline. Therefore we also expect Ether to fall, with targets near $1,850 and $1,391. Bullish FVGs have formed on Ether's charts, but Bitcoin's bearish FVG may drive the market reaction; Bitcoin's patterns are more consequential than Ether's.

Explanations for illustrations:

- CHOCH — change of trend structure.

- Liquidity — liquidity, Stop Losses and pending orders that market makers use to build positions.

- FVG — fair-value gap. A price-inefficiency area that price traverses quickly, indicating the absence of one side of the market; subsequently price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

- IFVG — inverted fair-value gap. After returning to such an area, price often does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.

- OB — order block. The candle where a market maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form a position in the opposite direction.