Global indices are on track for their best two-day gain in over three months. The MSCI All Country World index rose by 0.4% after a 2.2% jump on Monday. Asia was led by South Korea's chip-heavy Kospi, up 4.4%, followed by gains in Japan and Taiwan. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures are flat, and European markets added 0.9%. Recall that a week earlier, the MSCI closed at a six-month low, and on November 5, the Nasdaq 100 plunged by 6.4% in a single session. On Monday, US indices posted their best session in roughly seven months: the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 3.4%, and the US chip-makers index added nearly 7%.

The primary driver behind the rebound is oil. Brent slipped below $92/bbl after falling by almost 6% on Monday and is trading at August lows, compared with about $116 on October 30. Donald Trump said new strikes on Iran would be unnecessary, and the market read that as a sign the conflict could be winding down after the midterms that underlined his political weakness.

Note that last week's sell-off began with politics. Chipmakers took the brunt after the market saw Democrats' wins in both chambers as a threat of tougher oversight of the AI sector. As late as November 4, the results were viewed as favorable for the largest tech firms because a more active state could curb data-center spending, but by November 5, the narrative flipped — and calls by Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa for a moratorium on new data centers amplified fears. The sell-off was driven more by positioning than fundamentals, and rhetoric from Texas Democrats is already softening.

Anthropic released updated Mythos and Fable model versions ahead of its long-awaited IPO. Reuters reports the company filed and then withdrew a document suggesting it might raise as much as $69.3 billion. By comparison, Anthropic's Q3 revenue was roughly $17 billion with 12-fold growth, and the filing came in late October. Market chatter suggests that the IPO could take place as early as November 19–20.

However, the main focus today is US inflation data for October. Headline CPI is expected at +0.3% m/m after +0.6% in September; core +0.2% after +0.3%. Some believe the Fed will pause if inflation keeps easing, and softer AI spending alongside lower oil prices strengthens that case. Yet Goolsbee and Barkin spoke on November 9 about persistent inflation, so a pause remains a view held by part of the market rather than a regulator consensus.

On the S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the resistance level of $7,574. That would confirm upside momentum and open the way toward $7,607. Equally important for bulls is to hold control above $7,633, which would reinforce buyers' positions. In case of a downward move amid falling risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,544. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,518 and open the path to $7,495.